“Don’t think me strange, but the first thing I do when valuing a gun is smell it,” says Nicholas Holt. The founder of Holt’s Auctioneers, which specialises in firearms and sells around 10,000 a year, isn’t going mad; sniffing a firearm can tell him a great deal about it – has it been cleaned recently, is it musty from having been locked in a gun cabinet for years, does it still have the eggy smell of a black powder cartridge?

After putting his nose to work, Holt then identifies the action, checks the woodwork on the stock and fore-end (for originality), and measures bore diameters and barrel thicknesses using micrometers to ascertain usage and check its proof status. He also evaluates the gun’s general condition, quality, the estimated date of manufacture and the maker.

Guns expected to rise in value

Pinfire shotguns

Made for around 20 years from the 1860s, pinfires were the first guns to have all the shot components in one self-sealed container. Few and far between, a resurgence is expected.

For Holt, knowing the gun’s provenance and history is a major contributor to value and he not only uses the serial number to try and trace the gun’s origin, but also talks to the owner to find out if it was bought from a dealer or inherited, what they know about it, how long they have had it, what they shot with it and so on. “The provenance side is hugely important these days; it contributes enormously to its value. Clients love to know the history of a gun they are interested in buying,” Holt says.

The provenance side is hugely important these days; it contributes enormously to value. Clients love to know the history of a gun they are interested in buying

As well as evaluating practical aspects, a valuer also relies on the experience he or she has gained over the years, which gifts them a certain amount of gut feeling. “Carrying out a valuation is quite an esoteric thing and you do get an instinct about a gun,” explains Chris Beaumont, Holt’s second-in-command, who believes that actually holding the gun in his hands is vital. “When someone telephones and tells me about a gun it’s very hard to make a judgment. Holding it tells me a lot; it’s almost as if it comes to life.”

Guns expected to rise in value

Live pigeon guns

These heavy guns, which are chambered to take a larger cartridge, are increasing in value. Live pigeon shooting involved high stakes gambling and appealed to those with deep pockets, so many guns of this type were made for the wealthy and hence are very good quality.

Nick Bongers de Rath, Holt’s gunroom manager, looks out for what he calls quiet guns: “The guns we get excited about are the sleepy ones,” he says. “If it’s an antique then we don’t want it brightly polished, but nor do we want it black and overly dented. So I look out for a quiet, understated gun that has an element of history.”

The value of a gun also depends on how the buyer perceives its worth and the global political events and fashion trends of the time. “When valuing I don’t just rely on the UK but also on overseas markets,” says Holt. “That means I need to think about what’s going on in the world. For example, the situation in Ukraine and Russia means those markets are now closed, while American buyers tend to keep their wallets in their pockets when the dollar is weak.”

Fashions in the shooting world also affect values with bubbles occurring as different types of firearm fall in or out of favour. Two-inch chambered guns, for example, saw a major bubble a few years back while hammer guns experienced one a decade ago. “Suddenly everyone wanted a hammer gun and we saw some remarkable prices paid for rather mundane specimens,” says Beaumont. “Then of course the bubble bursts and the values drop.”

One of the biggest issues to impact value is barrel length. Short barrels are not fashionable at the moment, so a short-barrelled gun that should be worth £5,000 will fetch around £3,000 today just because its barrels are an inch shorter than fashion dictates. But in the 1950s, it was the short barrels that were in fashion and long barrels that weren’t, so the trends can be cyclical.

Value is also added to a firearm through design elements such as engraving, the quality of the wood and unusual features. Beaumont explains: “You may not know who made the gun but a specific feature will give you a clue that it was built by a quality manufacturer. On a sidelock, for example, you can generally see a circular disc on the lock plate. On higher-grade guns this pivot will have a line cut into it that is filled with gold so it acts as a cocking indicator, a simple but effective ‘upgrade’.”

Some things are rare because they weren’t very good – meaning not many were made. After all, a gun is a working tool and needs to be fit for purpose

Many people think rare guns must be valuable by default but as Beaumont points out this is not necessarily the case. “Some things are rare because in reality they weren’t very good – meaning not many were made. After all, a gun is a working tool and needs to be fit for purpose. Take the 12-20 shotgun, which has the proportions of a 20 bore but fires 12 bore cartridges. This was certainly lighter to carry around all day but the recoil was so great that it was unpleasant to shoot.”

Guns expected to rise in value

Wildfowling guns

Designed historically for people of modest means to put food on the table, wildfowling guns are usually very plain. But those with similar decoration to game guns were made for the wealthy, and can fetch extraordinary sums.

Holt says those looking to invest in guns should “do your homework… and keep your eyes peeled for upcoming trends that can be sparked by something as simple as a magazine article, which raises interest”.

For those of you with an antique firearm in your cabinet, be realistic about its value. It may not be very special, but equally you may be surprised: recently a lady in Scotland phoned Holt’s to say she had an old gun in the attic and didn’t know if it was worth anything. It turned out to be a Boss hammer ejector of which only about 20 were made. Valued at £4,000, it ultimately sold at auction for £12,000.

Holt’s next auction is on 17 September 2015. For more information, visit holtsauctioneers.com