Who knows the real Angela Merkel? Millions of German voters have just been asking that question once again – and have gone to the polls posing it harder this time than at any time after her 12 years in power.
As a politician of the digital age, despite her extraordinarily long time in office, Angela Merkel remains an enigma. The exhaustion of constant media analysis never seems to kick in. She exudes a kind of ‘quiet power’. The day the Berlin Wall came down, she went to the gym rather than rushing to the Wall. She later said she always knew the Wall would fall. It is that unshowy, calm clarity that gives her real staying power. ‘Mutti’, as Merkel has been dubbed by the German tabloids, performs exactly that political role for many Germans – the calming ‘mum’ of the nation.
A protégé of Helmut Kohl until she ruthlessly dumped him when he was enmeshed in scandal, she is both tough and tender. It took her only three years from being described as ‘Kohl’s girl’ to becoming the dominant figure in her party. Throughout her leadership there has been constant scepticism which has become almost ‘in-built’ around her but with no obvious challenger to her crown. Ring any bells here in London?
When she started her latest electoral campaign last year she did so following months of agonising – or so it seemed – about whether or not to stand again. But when you talk to politicians in her own CDU party – something I do – you understand there is never any real challenge to her authority. They all tell me there was never any doubt that Merkel would want to hold the crown once again. Like Margaret Thatcher, she has hollowed out her own party and – with it – German politics itself.
Throughout her career she has also seen off opposition party rivals in clinical fashion with both the leftist SPD and populist AfD restricted to minor roles for most of the time. Her decision to form a ‘grand coalition’ for much of the past decade with the SPD has virtually neutered them. They have taken the flack of the collective responsibility of government
but have gained little of electoral benefit.
Germans are on average very content with the direction the country is developing, and both the ‘grand coalition’ and Merkel are widely popular
Merkel addressed her perceived weaknesses directly in this campaign: she campaigned heavily in regions unlikely to vote for her, held open rallies where protesters were free to demonstrate, and put considerable effort into her appearance in the German TV debate, a marked weakpoint in her last election campaign. So she is a politician that learns from mistakes it seems, and has been given the opportunity to continue to tell her story not least because she shows she is willing to hear the stories of ordinary people.
This is no accident. While in government, Merkel has been a strong believer in polling and has 150+ surveys conducted a year to help her fine tune policy and her party programme. Her campaign focused heavily on security, stability, and a socially liberal vision of Germany.
Germans are on average very content with the direction the country is developing, and both the ‘grand coalition’ and Merkel are widely popular. The ‘boring’ election campaign was designed not to rock the boat.
Politics – everywhere – I believe is a so-called ‘knife and fork’ question. Most Germans see an economy with a big surplus doing very well and remaining the economic ‘motor’ of Europe. What’s not to like?
Forming a government will take time. It always does in modern German politics. Last time it took four months to form a new administration which, inevitably, takes me to Brexit. The UK shouldn’t place any false hope in any new centre-right German government leaping to action on Brexit immediately. Brexit is not a priority for the major coalition contender parties in Germany. Immigration and the diesel emissions scandal have been the key items.
There are many politicians in the UK framing the Brexit negotiation as a game of shadow boxing right now. Awaiting the new German government seems to be part of the UK negotiating strategy. The hope has been that German commerce, which has stayed quiet on the subject until the federal elections are done and dusted, will begin to speak out on the threat to their UK supply chain and export market.
My German political friends do have a hunch that the current Brexit negotiations will never work out and by Easter 2018 May will indeed end up negotiating directly with Merkel. I’m going to be in Berlin next month. I shall be doing more listening than talking.
