The Scottish Referendum was supposed to put the issue to bed for a generation. It didn’t. The SNP tsunami which hit the general election put paid to that idea.
It seems we now have the taste for referenda in Britain. Having not held a single-issue vote since 1975 when Britain last mused on EU membership, we held another one in 2011 on that Lib Dem idea to change our voting system. But, first past that post, we resoundingly opted to defeat any change. ‘Status quo’ seem to be lyrics voters like. At least for now.
The planned EU ‘in or out’ poll will be held by the end of 2017, the timing likely to be either autumn 2016 or late autumn 2017. But what are the chances #EUref fails to provide a once-in-a-generation outcome? Right now, I think quite high.
The idea of a second referendum is already being talked about before we actually have the first one, such is the febrile nature of our digitised politics these days. I don’t know if it’s the madness of political-crowd think or a really serious proposition. I fear it might be the latter.
So what’s the rationale of talking about a second poll? The eurosceptic right has cottoned on to the fact that current opinion polling (yes, I know it’s only an opinion poll and they don’t have the best track record right now) puts the ‘yes, let’s stay in Europe’ vote at around 55%. Didn’t the victorious No campaign in Scotland get 55% in the end? Rather than being spooked, the No campaign has learnt a lesson.
In a binary-choice election, those who want a successful ‘Out’ vote are correctly assessing that the starting point for the campaign will be an inherent majority to stay in Europe. In this event, the Prime Minister will look to spin his renegotiation as a historic success. So, difficult to do but it might include the UK opting out of ‘ever closer union’, benefit restrictions, recognition of a multi-currency EU and perhaps a red-card system for new EU legislation that allows national parliaments the ability to block new EU laws.
What is the logic of that second poll? It is being depicted as a mechanism to show the EU we are serious about leaving; like EU polls in France and Ireland – to get Brussels to listen. But in realpolitik land it provides political cover for some who would rather vote No at least once to burnish their credentials as Conservative leadership hopefuls. Let me come back to this in a moment.
In the midst of the latest Greek political tragedy at June’s EU Summit, David Cameron squeezed in his brief midnight hearing formally outlining the UK desire for a recalibrated relationship with Europe. It was presented to a dog-tired press corps the next day as if the negotiation was up and running. It’s not really. It’s just starting. But the longer the Greek crisis goes on, the less political oxygen there is available for negotiating with the EU. Strangely, I know a remarkable number of political friends who headed to Greece for their summer holiday this year. I really wonder why (ahem).
However, the Prime Minister has a political deadline he must meet. The Tory election manifesto promised to hold the EU vote before the end of 2017. So the scene is set for an EU Summit on 17-18 December when the UK demands will be placed on the table. But keep your eyes on the Tory Party Conference in October where the Prime Minister is set to use his speech to set out his thinking. Each party leader’s conference speech is, after all, a significant political moment every year when politicians try their best to grab the nation’s attention.
But there is someone else we should all be watching. And watching very carefully indeed. How will the current Mayor of London vote – yes or no? The new MP for Uxbridge can be seen on both sides of this debate. As Mayor, he has railed against the excess of the Brussels machine. But as a writer he has talked about many of the opportunities the post-war settlement in Europe has delivered. The No campaign continues to seek a figurehead beyond Nigel Farage. Boris – that big political beast – is an attractive candidate.
While popular in the constituencies and polling better than every politician – putting him on a par with the Royal Family – Boris is less plugged in to the new Westminster environment. So which way does he jump? The majority of the Cameron cabinet will be full square behind the Prime Minister’s renegotiation and will campaign for a Yes vote. So does Boris hold out for that second referendum – and campaign for a No vote the first time round?
Keep looking at polling numbers. If the No campaign can attract levels of support above 40% of the electorate, then there is a game of political poker in the Tory leadership race for Boris to play. If not, there’s a safer bet to play.
Oh yes, and finally: large tracts of the Labour party and the unions may be about to back a No vote against any opt-outs Cameron negotiates to EU workers’ rights.
It will be similar to 1975 all over again when Labour was deeply divided on the issue. But this time, it looks like both major parties face that problem. Stand by and ready yourselves for the EU neverendum.
